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4

Primoz

8yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 131

Kelso · NSPCC School Service Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 14y

#5

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bounced back to winning ways with a comfortable success in 6-runner handicap at Ayr in March and was just starting to struggle when wiped out at the Canal Turn in the Topham Chase at Aintree when last seen in April. Has won over C&D before but is no battler and this looks too competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Kelso 14/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 2 · OR 129 · 2m1f14y Sft 159 · beat its mark14/02/2025 · OR 129 par14/023OR 1291 @ Cheltenham 12/03/2025 · Pos 14th of 20 · OR 130 · 1m7f199y GS 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/03/2025 · OR 130 par1 @ Aintree 03/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 130 · 1m7f176y Goo 146 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/04/2025 · OR 130 par3/041OR 1303 @ Kelso 17/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 129 · 2m1f14y Gd 165 · below its mark17/09/2025 · OR 129 par3 @ Wetherby 15/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 130 · 1m7f36y Gd 168 · below its mark15/10/2025 · OR 130 par15/103OR 1303 @ Wetherby 15/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 129 · 2m3f85y Sft 159 · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 129 par3 @ Haydock 20/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 126 · 2m67y Sft 168 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 126 par20/123OR 1263 @ Newcastle 21/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 123 · 2m4f19y GS 151 · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 123 par3 @ Ayr 07/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 122 · 2m4f110y Sft 156 · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 122 par7/033OR 122projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-10Aintree1+1
2026-03-07Ayr31st2nd−1
2026-02-21Newcastle33rd4th−1
2025-12-20Haydock36th7th−1
2025-11-15Wetherby35th6th−1
2025-10-15Wetherby33rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0217/0920/127/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▲
Strength75%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/02/20251st4/797%100%+0.03
12/03/202514th6/168%32%-0.37
03/04/20257th17/255%54%-0.01
17/09/20252nd6/492%80%-0.12
15/10/20253rd4/696%33%-0.63
15/11/20255th11/271%20%-0.51
20/12/20256th16/116%29%+0.13
21/02/20263rd10/147%67%+0.19
07/03/20261st6/492%100%+0.08