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Tommy's Oscar

11yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 144

Kelso · NSPCC School Service Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 14y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

23%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has fine record in this race, winning it in 2023 and placed in both the last 2 renewals, though isn't as quick as he once was and tends to need further these days, as evidenced by his win over an extended 3m at Carlisle last season. Goes well fresh but others preferred for win purposes.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Perth 24/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 149 · 2m4f20y Goo 168 · below its mark24/04/2025 · OR 149 par24/042OR 1492 @ Kelso 05/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 148 · 2m1f14y Gd 168 · below its mark05/10/2025 · OR 148 par1 @ Wetherby 31/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 146 · 2m3f85y Gd 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/10/2025 · OR 146 par31/101OR 1462 @ Kelso 07/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 143 · 2m1f14y Sft 155 · below its mark07/12/2025 · OR 143 par2 @ Musselburgh 01/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 140 · 2m4f68y GS 168 · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 140 par1/012OR 1402 @ Musselburgh 31/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 139 · 2m4f68y Goo 151 · below its mark31/01/2026 · OR 139 par2 @ Carlisle 08/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 139 · 3m110y Goo 168 · beat its mark08/03/2026 · OR 139 par8/032OR 1391 @ Haydock 15/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 144 · 2m3f203y Goo 166 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/04/2026 · OR 144 par2 @ Perth 23/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 144 · 2m4f20y Goo 168 · below its mark23/04/2026 · OR 144 par23/042OR 144projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-23Perth22nd2nd0
2026-04-15Haydock14th3rd+1
2026-03-08Carlisle21st1st0
2026-01-31Musselburgh22nd2nd0
2026-01-01Musselburgh24th4th0
2025-12-07Kelso25th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/047/128/0323/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 83/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/04/20253rd13/266%60%-0.06
05/10/20253rd7/282%50%-0.32
31/10/20255th10/147%20%-0.27
07/12/20255th9/153%50%-0.03
01/01/20264th10/147%63%+0.15
31/01/20262nd8/158%86%+0.28
08/03/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
15/04/20264th14/126%70%+0.44
23/04/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10