3
Traprain Law
8yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 133
Kelso · NSPCC School Service Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 14y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Ayr | 1 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Musselburgh | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Wetherby | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Kelso | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Cheltenham | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Kelso | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-5 · tight 74/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -8.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2024 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/02/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 82% | +0.56 |
| 12/03/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 68% | +0.68 |
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 24/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 07/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 27/12/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 31/01/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |