IvyArcIvyArc
1

Golden Point

7yo Mare · 12-0 · OR 117

Kelso · Scottish Racing Academy Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m 2f 39y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

24%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Impressed with her jumping switched to fences when landing a pair of handicaps here over 23f and C&D late in 2025. Pulled up in handicap at Uttoxeter (3m, soft) in March though and off since. No surprise to see her bounce back on her return though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength21%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ayr 13/02/2024 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 2m Sft 15613/0244 @ Perth 26/09/2024 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 2m4f35y Gd 1544 @ Carlisle 01/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 2m3f61y Sft 1471/1244 @ Ayr 06/01/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 2m4f100y Sft 1544 @ Ayr 11/02/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 105 · 3m70y Sft 165 · below its mark11/02/2025 · OR 105 par11/024OR 1051 @ Doncaster 01/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 106 · 3m84y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/03/2025 · OR 106 par4 @ Kelso 25/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 107 · 2m7f96y Goo 166 · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 107 par25/104OR 1074 @ Kelso 18/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 105 · 2m7f96y Sft 155 · beat its mark18/11/2025 · OR 105 par4 @ Kelso 29/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 110 · 3m2f39y Goo 164 · beat its mark29/12/2025 · OR 110 par29/124OR 110projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-14Uttoxeter2+2
2025-12-29Kelso41st1st0
2025-11-18Kelso41st1st0
2025-10-25Kelso45th5th0
2025-03-01Doncaster15th1st+3
2025-02-11Ayr42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/026/0125/1029/12
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength71%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 4. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/02/20242nd11/142%80%+0.38
26/09/20244th12/137%25%-0.12
01/12/20243rd50/10%82%+0.82
06/01/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
11/02/20252nd9/276%92%+0.15
01/03/20255th28/10%43%+0.43
25/10/20255th13/266%43%-0.23
18/11/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
29/12/20251st2/189%100%+0.11