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5

Sir Carnegie

6yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 104

Kelso · Scottish Racing Academy Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m 2f 39y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made it 5 wins for current yard (including over C&D) at Perth (3m) in September with positive tactics utilised again. Posted another good effort with third of 9 to Upfordebate in handicap there (3m, good to soft) 10 days ago. Not out of things, although yard also has Fairlawn Skipper in here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 31/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 96 · 2m7f91y Goo 164 · below its mark31/03/2026 · OR 96 par31/035OR 964 @ Perth 23/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 94 · 2m7f180y Goo 152 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 94 par5 @ Perth 13/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 96 · 2m7f180y GS 164 · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 96 par13/055OR 965 @ Perth 14/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 96 · 2m4f20y Goo 159 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 96 par4 @ Hexham 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 100 · 3m41y Gd 158 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 100 par6/064OR 1004 @ Market Rasen 18/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 103 · 2m7f191y Gd 161 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 103 par5 @ Newton Abbot 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 102 · 3m1f170y Goo 168 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 102 par22/085OR 1024 @ Perth 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 101 · 2m7f180y Gd 149 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 101 par4 @ Perth 24/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 105 · 2m7f180y Goo 163 · below its mark24/09/2026 · OR 105 par24/094OR 105projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24Perth43rd3rd0
2026-09-07Perth41st1st0
2026-08-22Newton Abbot55th6th−1
2026-07-18Market Rasen46th6th0
2026-06-06Hexham41st1st0
2026-05-14Perth51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0314/0522/0824/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength65%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/03/20264th18/581%40%-0.41
23/04/20262nd12/137%86%+0.49
13/05/20263rd7/282%71%-0.10
14/05/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
06/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
18/07/20266th4/179%17%-0.62
22/08/20265th6/168%20%-0.48
07/09/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
24/09/20263rd5/287%75%-0.12