Upfordebate
7yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 111
Kelso · Scottish Racing Academy Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m 2f 39y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/11
Win Prob
89%
Place Prob
70%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Perth | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Perth | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Carlisle | 2 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-03-10 | Sedgefield | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Carlisle | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-12-05 | Sedgefield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 4.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 05/12/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/02/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 10/03/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 82% | +0.77 |
| 24/04/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 30% | -0.17 |
| 24/09/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |