Lone Star
9yo Mare · 11-10 · OR 88
Kelso · Join Racing TV Now Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 189y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
45%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Sedgefield | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Sedgefield | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Market Rasen | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Market Rasen | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Market Rasen | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Kelso | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 31/03/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 11/04/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 14/09/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |