7
Luminaries
9yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 76
Kelso · Join Racing TV Now Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 189y
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Sedgefield | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hexham | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Perth | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Newcastle | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Musselburgh | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 72/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength83%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 30/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 22/12/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 15/01/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 47% | +0.31 |
| 07/06/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 26/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |