3
Astelia
7yo Mare · 10-13 · OR 102
Killarney · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
61%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Listowel | BHA67 | 13th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | BHA103 | −2 | ||
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Ballinrobe | BHA103 | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-04 | Down Royal | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 74/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength95%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 2nd | 8/15 | 97% | 83% | -0.14 |
| 29/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 24/09/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 65% | +0.07 |
| 16/11/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 94% | +0.58 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 93% | +0.06 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 92% | +0.05 |
| 21/09/2026 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |