IvyArcIvyArc
1

Cerulean Summer

5yo Mare · 11-7

Killarney · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m 1f

#3

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair handicapper on Flat for Dylan Cunha. Not seen for 17 months ahead of this hurdling debut for new connections so probably best watched. First-time hood applied.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼2
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 5 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 15/11/2024 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 60 · 1m1f104y Std 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/11/2024 · OR 60 par15/116OR 606 @ Chelmsford City 05/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 64 · 1m2f Sta 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/12/2024 · OR 64 par6 @ Wolverhampton 04/01/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 64 · 1m1f104y Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/01/2025 · OR 64 par4/016OR 646 @ Wolverhampton 25/01/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 64 · 1m4f51y Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/01/2025 · OR 64 par6 @ Wolverhampton 18/02/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 64 · 1m4f51y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/02/2025 · OR 64 par18/026OR 646 @ Lingfield 05/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 63 · 1m4f Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/03/2025 · OR 63 par5 @ Chelmsford City 13/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 63 · 1m2f Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/03/2025 · OR 63 par13/035OR 636 @ Wolverhampton 01/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 63 · 1m142y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/04/2025 · OR 63 par5 @ Lingfield 23/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 64 · 1m4f Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/04/2025 · OR 64 par23/045OR 64projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-04-23Lingfield53rd-1th+3
2025-04-01Wolverhampton62nd0th+2
2025-03-13Chelmsford City53rd-1th+3
2025-03-05Lingfield62nd0th+2
2025-02-18Wolverhampton64th2nd+2
2025-01-25Wolverhampton63rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1125/0113/0323/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 5-9 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength5%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/11/20248th4/179%30%-0.49
05/12/20243rd18/15%82%+0.77
04/01/20253rd11/142%80%+0.38
25/01/20253rd11/271%71%+0.00
18/02/20254th17/255%57%+0.02
05/03/20252nd10/382%88%+0.05
13/03/20253rd15/261%75%+0.14
01/04/20252nd6/168%88%+0.19
23/04/20253rd4/179%67%-0.12