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4

Katie Can't Count

6yo Mare · 10-13

Killarney · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m 1f

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Not seen to best effect in bumper and having made an underwhelming hurdling debut (fell when held 2 out), shaped as if she's got a bigger performance in her if learning to settle when sixth of 15 at Downpatrick (2¼m, good to soft) recently. Respected for her top yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Downpatrick 13/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m2f185y Gd 16113/06C?C8 @ Downpatrick 18/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f165y Gd 15118/09C8projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Downpatrick?6th6th0
2026-08-21Kilbeggan?+1
2026-06-13Downpatrick?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0618/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +101.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/06/20264th11/1094%57%-0.37
18/09/20266th25/10%64%+0.64