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9

Velvet Ash

4yo Filly · 10-12

Killarney · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m 1f

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaped like a stayer when fourth in bumper at Listowel on debut in May and might have needed the run 3 months on when seventh of 10 at Kilbeggan (19f, good to soft) last time. Market check advised on hurdling debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▼8
Strength0%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: +8.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Listowel 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 2m100y Yie 15930/05C?C0 @ Kilbeggan 03/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 2m3f Goo 1633/09C?projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Kilbeggan?7th7th0
2026-05-30Listowel?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/053/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 7-7 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength28%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/05/20264th11/271%63%-0.09
03/09/20267th11/142%33%-0.09