4
Colin's Friend
5yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 93
Killarney · Seamus Weldon John Deere Dealer Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | BHA91 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | Fairyhouse | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Down Royal | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Thurles | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-03-22 | Navan | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1994% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength93%
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 27/11/2025 | 7th | 200/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 26/12/2025 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 03/02/2026 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 84% | -0.01 |