10
Granlahan
4yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 84
Killarney · Seamus Weldon John Deere Dealer Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
77%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Listowel | BHA80 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Downpatrick | BHA80 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sligo | BHA81 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Downpatrick | BHA83 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Ballinrobe | BHA85 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | BHA86 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 19100% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 62/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength74%
Delivery trend -9.2% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2026 | 8th | 200/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 87% | +0.34 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 23/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 94% | +0.13 |