15
Mount Hotham
7yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 74
Killarney · Seamus Weldon John Deere Dealer Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 1f
#19
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#19
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 10.0 /10 (raw 8.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Downpatrick | BHA77 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA77 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | BHA78 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Kilbeggan | BHA81 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Tramore | BHA84 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Tramore | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 196% of fieldRange 14-19 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength6%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 18th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 19/09/2025 | 14th | 100/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 03/10/2025 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 25/11/2025 | 12th | 250/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 20/04/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 31/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/07/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 09/08/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |