19
Penny Express
6yo Gelding · 12-1 · OR 100
Killarney · Seamus Weldon John Deere Dealer Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Navan | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wexford | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Clonmel | BHA107 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1978% of fieldRange 5-19 · tight 46/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength35%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 93% | +0.17 |
| 15/06/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 93% | +0.10 |
| 03/07/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 79% | +0.36 |
| 15/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 81% | +0.81 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 85% | +0.00 |
| 19/09/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |