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9

Romella

12yo Mare · 10-13 · OR 84

Killarney · Seamus Weldon John Deere Dealer Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 1f

#11

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

A 5-time winner, who registered the last of those successes at Tipperary last season. Returns after 10 months off from that same winning mark and with a good-value 5-lb claimer booked, but her record when fresh is mixed at best and she's fast approaching her teenage years.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength6%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: BHA72
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA87 @ Cork 21/04/2025 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR 87 · 2m Yie 155 · below its mark21/04/2025 · OR 87 par21/0487OR 87BHA78 @ Tipperary 01/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 78 · 2m120y Yie 146 · below its mark01/07/2025 · OR 78 parBHA75 @ Wexford 23/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 75 · 2m Gd 143 · below its mark23/07/2025 · OR 75 par23/0775OR 75BHA72 @ Clonmel 02/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 72 · 2m2f141y Goo 145 · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 72 parBHA85 @ Tipperary 06/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 85 · 2m100y Goo 154 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 85 par6/1085OR 85BHA92 @ Sligo 24/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 92 · 2m1f112y Goo 161 · below its mark24/10/2025 · OR 92 parBHA73 @ Clonmel 06/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 73 · 2m1f50y Sft 141 · below its mark06/11/2025 · OR 73 par6/1173OR 73BHA73 @ Thurles 20/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 73 · 2m2f65y Yie 140 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 73 parBHA91 @ Thurles 27/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 91 · 2m11y Goo 159 · below its mark27/11/2025 · OR 91 par27/1191OR 91projClass-projected finish: 12th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-11-27ThurlesBHA9110th10th0
2025-11-20ThurlesBHA737th7th0
2025-11-06ClonmelBHA737th7th0
2025-10-24SligoBHA928th8th0
2025-10-06TipperaryBHA851st1st0
2025-10-02ClonmelBHA722nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/042/106/1127/11
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1933% of fieldRange 11-19 · tight 69/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength22%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/04/20259th50/10%53%+0.53
01/07/20255th33/10%73%+0.73
23/07/20257th22/10%45%+0.45
02/10/20252nd10/147%91%+0.44
06/10/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
24/10/20258th16/116%42%+0.26
06/11/20257th22/10%60%+0.60
20/11/20257th25/10%57%+0.57
27/11/202510th14/126%25%-0.01