IvyArcIvyArc
16

The Border Boy

9yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 72

Killarney · Seamus Weldon John Deere Dealer Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 1f

#12

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Cork handicap hurdle winner who produced his best effort over fences when fourth of 10 in handicap at Tramore (2¾m) in May. Looked back in form when 1½ lengths fifth of 15 to Pure Logic at this course last time, bad mistake last. Remains on last winning mark and one to consider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength11%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 7.9)

Highest class: BHA72
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA77 @ Wexford 29/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 77 · 2m190y Goo 146 · below its mark29/08/2025 · OR 77 par29/0877OR 77BHA76 @ Navan 20/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 76 · 2m3f Yie 146 · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 76 parBHA74 @ Fairyhouse 11/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 74 · 2m Yie 142 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 74 par11/1074OR 74BHA74 @ Thurles 16/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 74 · 1m7f172y Goo 143 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 74 parBHA74 @ Thurles 30/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 74 · 1m7f150y Goo 143 · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 74 par30/1074OR 74BHA74 @ Thurles 20/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 74 · 2m2f65y Yie 140 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 74 parBHA74 @ Punchestown 13/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 19 · OR 74 · 2m Goo 142 · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 74 par13/0574OR 74BHA73 @ Tramore 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 73 · 2m6f Goo 145 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 73 parBHA72 @ Killarney 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 72 · 2m4f50y Goo 143 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 72 par22/0872OR 72projClass-projected finish: 4th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22KillarneyBHA725th5th0
2026-07-17KillarneyBHA720
2026-05-30TramoreBHA734th4th0
2026-05-13PunchestownBHA7414th14th0
2025-11-20ThurlesBHA748th8th0
2025-10-30ThurlesBHA743rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0816/1013/0522/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1961% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/08/20259th14/126%38%+0.12
20/09/20259th18/15%47%+0.41
11/10/20253rd18/15%87%+0.81
16/10/20256th5/174%71%-0.03
30/10/20253rd10/147%88%+0.41
20/11/20258th12/137%50%+0.13
13/05/202614th12/137%28%-0.09
30/05/20264th25/10%67%+0.67
22/08/20265th22/10%71%+0.71