1
Belladaball
5yo Mare · 12-0
Killarney · Gleneagle Arena Killarney Rated Novice Hurdle · 2m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength72%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +2.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Sligo | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-03 | Cork | ? | −1 | ||
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Punchestown | 1 | 14th | 6th | +7 |
| 2026-04-04 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 1st | -7th | +7 |
| 2026-03-17 | Down Royal | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 75/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength96%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 17/03/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 29/04/2026 | 14th | 22/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 70% | -0.06 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |