3
Cocofred
5yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 117
Killarney · Gleneagle Arena Killarney Rated Novice Hurdle · 2m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | BHA117 | 9th | 14th | −4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Tramore | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Naas | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-03 | Fairyhouse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 30/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -22.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 04/03/2026 | 7th | 100/1 | 0% | 68% | +0.68 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 79% | +0.52 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 04/09/2026 | 9th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |