5
Firebrand
6yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 115
Killarney · Gleneagle Arena Killarney Rated Novice Hurdle · 2m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
87%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sligo | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Thurles | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Galway | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 93% | +0.12 |
| 20/09/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 53% | +0.48 |
| 23/09/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 93% | +0.41 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 95% | +0.16 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |