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Lips Freedom

6yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 118

Killarney · Gleneagle Arena Killarney Rated Novice Hurdle · 2m 1f

#4

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved when winning at Downpatrick in March and defied an 11 lb higher mark over C&D in July. Couple of lesser efforts followed (including on Flat) but resumed progress when second of 13 at Navan (2m, good to soft) recently (picked off late by a stronger stayer). Fancied to be bang there.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲3
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 10.8 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Down Royal 01/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR - · 2m190y Yie 1661/11C8C8 @ Naas 09/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR - · 2m Sft 166BHA96 @ Leopardstown 28/12/2025 · Pos 13th of 23 · OR 96 · 2m4f150y Goo 142 · below its mark28/12/2025 · OR 96 par28/1296OR 96BHA95 @ Down Royal 20/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 95 · 2m1f33y Sft 164 · below its mark20/01/2026 · OR 95 parBHA93 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 93 · 2m1f165y Yie 149 · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 93 par29/0393OR 93BHA104 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 104 · 2m1f Goo 160 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 104 parBHA113 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 20 · OR 113 · 2m175y Goo 149 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 113 par1/08113OR 113BHA90 @ Curragh 13/09/2026 · Pos 18th of 22 · OR 90 · 1m2f Goo 127 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 90 parBHA113 @ Navan 19/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 113 · 1m7f165y Goo 159 · below its mark19/09/2026 · OR 113 par19/09113OR 113projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19NavanBHA1132nd7th−4
2026-09-13CurraghBHA9018th20th−2
2026-08-01GalwayBHA11313th18th−4
2026-07-16KillarneyBHA1041st5th−3
2026-03-29DownpatrickBHA931st3rd−2
2026-01-20Down RoyalBHA9511th13th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1120/011/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength89%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/11/202512th22/10%21%+0.21
09/11/202511th150/10%33%+0.33
28/12/202513th80/10%45%+0.45
20/01/202611th16/116%33%+0.18
29/03/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
16/07/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
01/08/202613th8/158%37%-0.21
13/09/202618th28/10%19%+0.19
19/09/20262nd9/276%92%+0.15