7
Rosenborg
5yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 109
Killarney · Gleneagle Arena Killarney Rated Novice Hurdle · 2m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | BHA110 | 6th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wexford | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Sligo | ? | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -14.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 09/06/2026 | 12th | 80/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 38% | -0.18 |