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3

James The Brave

6yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 97

Killarney · QuinnBet Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 6f 180y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

81%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enjoyed a fruitful 2025/26, winning a handicap hurdle at Punchestown and handicap chases at this course and Wexford all under this rider. Potentially well treated now reverting to hurdling, though he may just need this after 6 months off compared to some already up and running.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Navan 01/03/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 2m6f100y Hvy 1661/03C8BHA99 @ Limerick 01/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 99 · 2m3f Goo 167 · below its mark01/04/2025 · OR 99 parBHA98 @ Tramore 14/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 98 · 2m5f110y Yie 168 · below its mark14/04/2025 · OR 98 par14/0498OR 98BHA96 @ Galway 08/09/2025 · Pos 15th of 19 · OR 96 · 2m6f97y Goo 164 · below its mark08/09/2025 · OR 96 parBHA91 @ Killarney 05/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 91 · 2m7f100y Yie 159 · beat its mark05/10/2025 · OR 91 par5/1091OR 91BHA97 @ Punchestown 13/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 97 · 3m70y Hvy 166 · below its mark13/11/2025 · OR 97 parC8 @ Punchestown 04/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 91 · 2m3f17y Sft 140 · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 91 par4/02C8OR 91BHA97 @ Punchestown 18/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 97 · 2m4f23y Sft 166 · below its mark18/02/2026 · OR 97 parC8 @ Wexford 10/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 103 · 2m3f100y Goo 144 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 103 par10/04C8OR 103projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-10Wexford?1st1st0
2026-03-12Limerick?0
2026-02-18PunchestownBHA973rd3rd0
2026-02-04Punchestown?1st1st0
2025-12-29Limerick?0
2025-11-13PunchestownBHA972nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/038/094/0210/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 73/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength94%

Delivery trend +0.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/03/20258th40/10%22%+0.22
01/04/20254th6/168%81%+0.13
14/04/20255th7/282%60%-0.22
08/09/202515th9/153%22%-0.30
05/10/20251st17/255%100%+0.45
13/11/20252nd4/179%92%+0.13
04/02/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
18/02/20263rd15/890%87%-0.03
10/04/20261st9/488%100%+0.12