5
Lakewood Rose
8yo Mare · 11-9 · OR 95
Killarney · QuinnBet Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m 6f 180y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Listowel | BHA96 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-21 | Kilbeggan | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Cork | BHA99 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Punchestown | BHA99 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Wexford | BHA98 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Tramore | BHA99 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 19/02/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 08/03/2026 | 6th | 150/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 19/03/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 77% | +0.72 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 87% | +0.18 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 21/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |