5
Cahirdown Boy
11yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 104
Killarney · Carry Out Handicap Chase · 2m 1f
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Listowel | BHA104 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA104 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-10 | Limerick | BHA98 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Cork | BHA102 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-19 | Limerick | BHA98 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Listowel | BHA103 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength19%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2023 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 22/09/2023 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 13/09/2024 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 27/09/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 20/10/2024 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 28/11/2024 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 26/09/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 10/02/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 69% | -0.02 |