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8

Chosen Shant

10yo Mare · 10-8 · OR 100

Killarney · Carry Out Handicap Chase · 2m 1f

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Both hurdles wins at Wexford and has scored in 2 handicap chases there this season, the latest over 19f in August. Probably remained in form when third of 10 at Roscommon (2¾m, good to soft) 6 days ago and should give another decent account.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Wexford 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 86 · 2m Goo 153 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 86 par16/05C8OR 86BHA99 @ Listowel 01/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 99 · 2m Yie 158 · below its mark01/06/2026 · OR 99 parBHA86 @ Roscommon 08/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 86 · 2m100y Sft 143 · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 86 par8/0686OR 86BHA85 @ Wexford 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 85 · 2m Goo 153 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 85 parBHA91 @ Wexford 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 91 · 1m7f110y Gd 159 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 91 par22/0791OR 91BHA98 @ Wexford 07/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 98 · 2m180y Goo 168 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 98 parBHA93 @ Wexford 28/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 93 · 2m3f100y Yie 153 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 93 par28/0893OR 93BHA97 @ Listowel 20/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 97 · 2m2f100y Goo 143 · below its mark20/09/2026 · OR 97 parBHA100 @ Roscommon 28/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 100 · 2m5f131y Yie 150 · below its mark28/09/2026 · OR 100 par28/09100OR 100projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-28RoscommonBHA1003rd3rd0
2026-09-20ListowelBHA976th6th0
2026-08-28WexfordBHA931st1st0
2026-08-07WexfordBHA985th5th0
2026-07-22WexfordBHA912nd2nd0
2026-06-30WexfordBHA851st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0530/0628/0828/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength53%

Delivery trend -4.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/05/20264th150/10%25%+0.25
01/06/20263rd25/10%78%+0.78
08/06/20267th16/116%54%+0.38
30/06/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
22/07/20262nd10/382%92%+0.09
07/08/20265th11/486%69%-0.16
28/08/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
20/09/20266th12/137%71%+0.34
28/09/20263rd5/174%78%+0.04