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Kilbrin Rocco

7yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 105

Killarney · Carry Out Handicap Chase · 2m 1f

#2

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

19%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner over fences last season, including at Tramore in April. Shaped well from his lower hurdling mark when second of 13 at Listowel (2m, good to soft) 10 days ago and claims if translating that back over the larger obstacles. Booking of Kennedy signals intent.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA90 @ Clonmel 06/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 90 · 2m1f50y Sft 158 · below its mark06/11/2025 · OR 90 par6/1190OR 90BHA90 @ Limerick 26/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 90 · 2m1f130y Sft 146 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 90 parBHA93 @ Clonmel 08/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 93 · 2m Hvy 151 · beat its mark08/01/2026 · OR 93 par8/0193OR 93BHA100 @ Thurles 05/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 100 · 2m2f Sft 156 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 100 parC8 @ Limerick 12/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 100 · 2m1f185y Hvy 149 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 100 par12/03C8OR 100C8 @ Tramore 19/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 99 · 1m7f110y Yie 148 · beat its mark19/04/2026 · OR 99 parBHA103 @ Wexford 07/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 103 · 2m Goo 143 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 103 par7/05103OR 103BHA105 @ Galway 28/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 20 · OR 105 · 2m2f54y Gd 161 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 105 parBHA90 @ Listowel 24/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 90 · 2m Goo 146 · below its mark24/09/2026 · OR 90 par24/0990OR 90projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24ListowelBHA902nd2nd0
2026-07-28GalwayBHA1059th9th0
2026-05-07WexfordBHA1032nd2nd0
2026-04-19Tramore?1st1st0
2026-03-12Limerick?5th5th0
2026-02-05ThurlesBHA10010th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/115/027/0524/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 81/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/11/20255th8/158%73%+0.15
26/12/20252nd9/153%92%+0.40
08/01/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
05/02/202610th11/271%40%-0.31
12/03/20265th11/142%43%+0.01
19/04/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
07/05/20262nd13/266%89%+0.23
28/07/20269th25/10%58%+0.58
24/09/20262nd11/486%92%+0.06