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7

Presenting Lad

10yo Gelding · 10-10 · OR 102

Killarney · Carry Out Handicap Chase · 2m 1f

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

16%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Without a win in nearly 2 years and offered a clue as to why in first-time blinkers when second of 6 at Downpatrick (2¼m, good) just under 5 weeks ago, looming up to the long-time leader on the run-in only to empty in the final 100 yds. Will probably find a couple too good.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA118 @ Killarney 18/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 118 · 2m1f Yie 146 · below its mark18/07/2025 · OR 118 par18/07118OR 118BHA115 @ Downpatrick 25/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 115 · 2m1f165y Gd 165 · below its mark25/08/2025 · OR 115 parBHA115 @ Kilbeggan 05/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 115 · 2m Goo 159 · below its mark05/09/2025 · OR 115 par5/09115OR 115BHA112 @ Cork 12/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 112 · 2m1f140y Gd 140 · below its mark12/10/2025 · OR 112 parBHA106 @ Wexford 07/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 106 · 2m Goo 162 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 106 par7/05106OR 106BHA104 @ Tramore 29/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 104 · 1m7f110y Goo 154 · below its mark29/05/2026 · OR 104 parBHA104 @ Roscommon 08/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 104 · 2m100y Sft 161 · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 104 par8/06104OR 104BHA100 @ Tramore 16/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 100 · 1m7f140y Gd 168 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 100 parBHA102 @ Downpatrick 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 102 · 2m1f165y Gd 148 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 102 par31/08102OR 102projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31DownpatrickBHA1022nd2nd0
2026-08-16TramoreBHA1002nd2nd0
2026-06-30WexfordBHA1030
2026-06-08RoscommonBHA10410th10th0
2026-05-29TramoreBHA1042nd2nd0
2026-05-07WexfordBHA1069th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0712/108/0631/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength98%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/07/20258th12/137%13%-0.24
25/08/20253rd15/261%75%+0.14
05/09/20256th22/10%50%+0.50
12/10/20257th16/116%14%-0.02
07/05/20269th66/10%27%+0.27
29/05/20262nd14/126%90%+0.64
08/06/202610th11/142%31%-0.11
16/08/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
31/08/20262nd3/184%80%-0.04