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3

Stede Bonnet

5yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 126

Killarney · O'Donoghue Ring Collection Beginners Chase · 2m 4f 180y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful bumper/hurdle winner. In good form in handicaps this summer, no match for useful pair at Kilbeggan prior to a forgivable effort at Galway in August (poorly placed). Related to some useful chasers and no surprise to see him play leading role on chasing debut for top yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Galway 02/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR - · 2m175y Gd 1632/08C84 @ Ayr 01/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m Hvy 154C8 @ Tramore 01/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 2m180y Sft 1661/01C84 @ Ayr 29/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 125 · 2m Sft 166 · beat its mark29/01/2026 · OR 125 par1 @ Punchestown 15/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 126 · 1m7f165y Hvy 166 · below its mark15/02/2026 · OR 126 par15/021OR 1262 @ Cheltenham 13/03/2026 · Pos 15th of 24 · OR 133 · 2m4f56y Goo 158 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 133 parBHA127 @ Roscommon 08/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 127 · 2m4f Yie 166 · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 127 par8/06127OR 127BHA128 @ Kilbeggan 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 128 · 2m4f Goo 159 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 128 par1 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 20 · OR 128 · 2m6f108y Goo 154 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 128 par1/081OR 128projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01Galway114th14th0
2026-07-10KilbegganBHA1283rd3rd0
2026-06-08RoscommonBHA1272nd2nd0
2026-03-13Cheltenham215th15th0
2026-02-15Punchestown13rd3rd0
2026-01-29Ayr41st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0829/018/061/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/08/20256th7/282%72%-0.09
01/12/20252nd9/276%90%+0.14
01/01/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
29/01/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
15/02/20263rd11/271%33%-0.38
13/03/202615th20/10%39%+0.39
08/06/20262nd13/266%88%+0.22
10/07/20263rd8/158%85%+0.27
01/08/202614th16/116%32%+0.16