9
Avec Espoir
13yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 85
Killarney · Quills Menswear Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 7f 100y
#3
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.7 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA80 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-08 | Wexford | BHA89 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-05 | Killarney | BHA99 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Navan | BHA88 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Ballinrobe | BHA103 | 0 | ||
| 2025-08-29 | Wexford | BHA90 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1557% of fieldRange 13-15 · tight 84/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2023 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 11/11/2023 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 21/05/2024 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 02/07/2024 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 26/08/2024 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 28/09/2024 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 29/08/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 20/09/2025 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/10/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |