7
Ellens Pride
6yo Mare · 11-0 · OR 86
Killarney · Quills Menswear Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 7f 100y
#11
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Listowel | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Wexford | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Tramore | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA87 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Cork | BHA89 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-09 | Sligo | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1521% of fieldRange 4-13 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength46%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2024 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 18/07/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 15/08/2025 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 26/05/2026 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 23/07/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/08/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.67 |
| 24/09/2026 | 10th | 250/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |