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11

Joe's Turn

10yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 85

Killarney · Quills Menswear Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 7f 100y

#8

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smooth-travelling winner of handicap hurdle/chase at Kilbeggan in 2024/5. Back on a workable mark having failed to fire in 3 starts this season, not for the first time hanging left when beaten 13 lengths on return to fences/Kilbeggan latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength19%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA82 @ Kilbeggan 23/08/2024 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 82 · 3m1f100y Goo 155 · beat its mark23/08/2024 · OR 82 par23/0882OR 82BHA92 @ Ballinrobe 13/09/2024 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 92 · 2m7f77y Goo 166 · below its mark13/09/2024 · OR 92 parBHA92 @ Sligo 02/10/2024 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 92 · 2m5f27y Gd 158 · below its mark02/10/2024 · OR 92 par2/1092OR 92BHA80 @ Punchestown 24/02/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 80 · 2m4f23y Hvy 148 · below its mark24/02/2025 · OR 80 parBHA80 @ Kilbeggan 25/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 80 · 3m70y Yie 151 · beat its mark25/04/2025 · OR 80 par25/0480OR 80BHA86 @ Tipperary 14/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 86 · 3m1f Goo 154 · below its mark14/05/2025 · OR 86 parBHA90 @ Punchestown 13/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR 90 · 3m Goo 158 · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 90 par13/0590OR 90BHA89 @ Sligo 12/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 89 · 3m1f121y Gd 145 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 89 parBHA86 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 86 · 3m1f180y Goo 156 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 86 par21/0886OR 86projClass-projected finish: 4th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21KilbegganBHA866th6th0
2026-07-12SligoBHA896th6th0
2026-05-13PunchestownBHA908th8th0
2025-06-16KilbegganBHA900
2025-05-14TipperaryBHA862nd2nd0
2025-04-25KilbegganBHA801st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0824/0213/0521/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20241st10/382%100%+0.18
13/09/202413th3/184%14%-0.70
02/10/20245th6/168%60%-0.08
24/02/20253rd10/147%86%+0.38
25/04/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
14/05/20252nd11/271%93%+0.22
13/05/20268th25/10%59%+0.59
12/07/20266th17/255%64%+0.09
21/08/20266th9/153%62%+0.09