3
Kilkee Bay
7yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 94
Killarney · Quills Menswear Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 7f 100y
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Killarney | BHA95 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-04 | Roscommon | BHA96 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | BHA96 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Roscommon | BHA90 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Limerick | BHA92 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Killarney | BHA94 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2024 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 58% | +0.11 |
| 07/10/2024 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 25/10/2024 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 29% | -0.14 |
| 08/08/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 46% | -0.17 |
| 02/10/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 62% | -0.17 |
| 21/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 93% | +0.19 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 73% | +0.02 |