4
King Ferdinand
10yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 91
Killarney · Quills Menswear Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 7f 100y
#1
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
84%
Place Prob
52%
Rank
#1
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Listowel | BHA93 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Killarney | BHA98 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-03 | Cork | BHA92 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-16 | Killarney | BHA96 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | BHA98 | 0 | ||
| 2024-12-27 | Limerick | BHA104 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 4-13 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength45%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2024 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.17 |
| 22/08/2024 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 09/09/2024 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 13/10/2024 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 03/11/2024 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 08/12/2024 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 27/12/2024 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 16/07/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 26/09/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |