2
Nolans Rocco
7yo Mare · 11-10 · OR 96
Killarney · Quills Menswear Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 7f 100y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | BHA97 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Wexford | BHA97 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-12 | Limerick | BHA91 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Thurles | BHA88 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Punchestown | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-01 | Tramore | BHA88 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength53%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/04/2025 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 17% | +0.11 |
| 08/05/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 19/10/2025 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 25/10/2025 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/11/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 54% | +0.06 |
| 01/01/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 77% | +0.30 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 93% | +0.41 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 07/09/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |