15
Urbs Intacta Manet
5yo Gelding · 10-4 · OR 76
Killarney · Quills Menswear Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 7f 100y
#15
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 11.4)
Highest class: BHA77
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Wexford | BHA77 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | BHA80 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Punchestown | BHA82 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Down Royal | BHA84 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Leopardstown | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Limerick | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 150% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength51%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 19th | 66/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 15/12/2025 | 16th | 300/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 02/03/2026 | 12th | 300/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 12/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 13/05/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 41% | +0.41 |
| 10/08/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 28/08/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 42% | +0.05 |