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8

Zolpharine

8yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 86

Killarney · Quills Menswear Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 7f 100y

#5

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Belatedly off the mark over fences in handicap at Limerick (23f) in May before following up over hurdles at Tramore. Best effort of his chase 4 runs since when beaten 11 lengths at Sligo on Wednesday. Needs to build on that back up in trip, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA83 @ Limerick 12/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 83 · 2m6f170y Hvy 151 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 83 par12/0383OR 83C8 @ Clonmel 26/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 81 · 2m7f122y Sft 140 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 81 parBHA78 @ Tramore 19/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m7f110y Yie 146 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 78 par19/0478OR 78BHA77 @ Limerick 21/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 77 · 2m6f160y Gd 145 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 77 parBHA75 @ Tramore 29/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 75 · 2m5f145y Goo 143 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 75 par29/0575OR 75BHA89 @ Kilbeggan 08/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 89 · 3m1f50y Goo 148 · below its mark08/08/2026 · OR 89 parBHA89 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 89 · 3m1f180y Goo 159 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 89 par21/0889OR 89BHA88 @ Ballinrobe 11/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 88 · 2m7f67y Yie 156 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 88 parC8 @ Sligo 30/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 86 · 2m1f153y Gd 140 · below its mark30/09/2026 · OR 86 par30/09C8OR 86projClass-projected finish: 15th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-30Sligo?5th5th0
2026-09-11BallinrobeBHA8814th14th0
2026-08-21KilbegganBHA8913th13th0
2026-08-08KilbegganBHA894th4th0
2026-05-29TramoreBHA751st1st0
2026-05-21LimerickBHA771st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0321/0521/0830/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1529% of fieldRange 7-15 · tight 62/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/03/20265th28/10%73%+0.73
26/03/202611th14/126%23%-0.03
19/04/20265th15/261%56%-0.05
21/05/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
29/05/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
08/08/20264th5/287%0%-0.87
21/08/202613th12/137%8%-0.29
11/09/202614th20/10%13%+0.13
30/09/20265th28/10%33%+0.33