5
Bodecream
9yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 5 · OR 95
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-29 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength40%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 71% | -0.21 |
| 09/11/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 55% | -0.34 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 78% | -0.10 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 17% | -0.75 |
| 12/09/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.16 |