8
Thick As Thieves
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 8 · OR 68
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Penn National | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 6-8 · tight 78/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 22/08/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 17/09/2025 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 64% | -0.19 |
| 24/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 04/09/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |