4

Wine Collector

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 90

Laurel Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 11/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 79 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark11/03/2026 · OR 79 par11/03C8OR 79C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 21/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 83 · 1m Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/03/2026 · OR 83 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 04/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 84 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 84 par4/04C8OR 84C6 @ Laurel Park 15/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 84 · 1m Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 84 parC8 @ Laurel Park 13/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 83 · 1m110y Fm 126 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 83 par13/06C8OR 83C7 @ Delaware Park 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 90 · 1m1f Fm 122 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 90 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 12/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 87 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 87 par12/07C8OR 87C7 @ Colonial Downs 14/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 88 · 1m110y Fm 123 · below its mark14/08/2026 · OR 88 parC8 @ Delaware Park 12/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 89 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 89 par12/09C8OR 89projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Delaware Park?4th5th−1
2026-08-14Colonial Downs?5th5th0
2026-07-12Colonial Downs?6th7th−1
2026-06-20Delaware Park?1st1st0
2026-06-13Laurel Park?5th6th−1
2026-05-15Laurel Park?11th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0315/0512/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength95%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/03/20262nd4/179%88%+0.09
21/03/202610th25/10%0%0.00
04/04/20263rd14/126%75%+0.49
15/05/202611th50/10%9%+0.09
13/06/20265th10/147%43%-0.05
20/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
12/07/20266th16/116%0%-0.16
14/08/20265th25/10%50%+0.50
12/09/20264th12/137%73%+0.36