Zapata

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 87

Laurel Park · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength13%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: -0.7

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-19	Laurel Park	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-08-13	Penn National	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-07-22	Penn National	?	5th	6th	−1	3.8
2026-06-12	Penn National	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-05-28	Penn National	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-02	Laurel Park	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 64/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength29%

Delivery trend +3.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/02/2026	10th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
06/03/2026	7th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
28/03/2026	9th	15/2	61%	27%	-0.33
02/05/2026	6th	16/1	16%	44%	+0.29
28/05/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	82%	+0.45
12/06/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12
22/07/2026	5th	7/2	82%	56%	-0.26
13/08/2026	1st	5/1	74%	100%	+0.26
19/09/2026	6th	20/1	0%	38%	+0.38