8
Granuaile
5yo Mare · 8-7 · Draw 9 · OR 81
Laurel Park · Race 10 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 70/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength90%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 45% | -0.39 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 19/09/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |