Naughty Favors
5yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 6 · OR 83
Laurel Park · Race 10 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 15/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 26/05/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |