Paris By Night

2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 57

Laurel Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

9/5

Win Prob

32%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼1

Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-13	Delaware Park	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-07-16	Colonial Downs	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-06-12	Laurel Park	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-05-22	Laurel Park	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 41/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength66%

Delivery trend +9.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/05/2026	3rd	1/1	95%	50%	-0.45
12/06/2026	6th	5/2	87%	17%	-0.70
16/07/2026	7th	10/3	82%	14%	-0.68
13/08/2026	2nd	8/11	96%	83%	-0.13