Pelican Pier

2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 55

Laurel Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-06	Colonial Downs	?	11th	8th	+3	2.0
2026-06-12	Laurel Park	?	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0
2026-05-23	Laurel Park	?	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0
2026-05-02	Laurel Park	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 76/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +18.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
02/05/2026	4th	5/2	87%	25%	-0.62
23/05/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	80%	+0.04
12/06/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	83%	+0.07
06/08/2026	11th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00