IvyArcIvyArc
6

Brikeli

3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 6 · OR 80

Laurel Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength4%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Penn National 02/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 5f 1212/06C6C6 @ Colonial Downs 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 61 · 5f110y Fm 119 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 61 par11/07C6OR 61C6 @ Colonial Downs 13/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 75 · 5f110y Fm 119 · below its mark13/08/2026 · OR 75 par13/08C6OR 75C6 @ Laurel Park 18/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 12218/09C6projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Laurel Park?1st2nd−1
2026-08-13Colonial Downs?7th8th−1
2026-07-11Colonial Downs?3rd4th−1
2026-06-02Penn National?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0611/0713/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 41/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +17.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/06/20265th7/282%33%-0.48
11/07/20263rd25/10%75%+0.75
13/08/20267th12/137%0%-0.37
18/09/20261st9/153%100%+0.47