1
Christmas Jones
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 1 · OR 77
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲3
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-04-18 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength24%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 22% | -0.57 |
| 31/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 13/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 10/10/2025 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 44% | -0.47 |
| 21/11/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 70% | -0.17 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |