IvyArcIvyArc
7

Destination

5yo Mare · 8-11 · Draw 7 · OR 92

Laurel Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

37%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 23/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 77 · 5f110y Fm 124 · below its mark23/08/2025 · OR 77 par23/08C6OR 77C6 @ Laurel Park 20/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 76 · 7f Fas 126 · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 76 parC9 @ Laurel Park 08/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 72 · 6f Slo 126 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 72 par8/11C9OR 72C8 @ Laurel Park 13/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 71 · 6f 126 · beat its mark13/02/2026 · OR 71 parC5 @ Laurel Park 15/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 75 · 6f 123 · beat its mark15/03/2026 · OR 75 par15/03C5OR 75C5 @ Laurel Park 10/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 79 · 7f Fas 123 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 79 parC7 @ Laurel Park 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 75 · 6f 126 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 75 par31/05C7OR 75C5 @ Laurel Park 20/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 78 · 5f110y Fm 123 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 78 parC0 @ Colonial Downs 22/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 6f Fas 12122/08C?projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Colonial Downs?6th6th0
2026-06-20Laurel Park?3rd3rd0
2026-05-31Laurel Park?1st3rd−2
2026-04-10Laurel Park?5th5th0
2026-03-15Laurel Park?4th4th0
2026-02-13Laurel Park?1st4th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0813/0231/0522/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 78/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20255th10/382%43%-0.40
20/09/20256th9/276%29%-0.48
08/11/20251st4/696%100%+0.04
13/02/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
15/03/20264th16/116%57%+0.41
10/04/20265th16/116%0%-0.16
31/05/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
20/06/20263rd4/179%71%-0.08
22/08/20266th14/126%38%+0.11