4
Hot Boss
4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 78
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-06-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-11-22 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-10-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2025-09-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 25/07/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 05/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 26/09/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 25/10/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 01/08/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |